What Polling Shows About Americans’ Views of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. stunned the political landscape on Wednesday as he testified in a New York courtroom to appeal a ballot suit. The appeal follows last week’s ruling by a New York judge that the Kennedy scion should not appear on the state ballot due to the listing of a “sham” address on nominating petitions.

Public Opinion in Light of Recent Developments

Recent polls provide intriguing insights into how the American public perceives Kennedy. In a surprising turn of events, Republicans appear more likely to harbor a favorable opinion of Kennedy than Democrats. This follows Kennedy’s announcement last Friday that he was suspending his Presidential campaign and throwing his support behind the Republican presidential nominee, Donald Trump.

Kennedy shared this announcement during a speech in Arizona, expressing concern that the continuation of his campaign could end up aiding the Democratic nominee, Kamala Harris. This decision followed a decline in support for Kennedy, indicated by recent polls, as he grappled with defining his political identity amidst the reshaping of the race following the exit of Democratic President Joe Biden and Harris’ subsequent nomination.

Impact of Kennedy’s Presence and Departure

Analysts believe that Kennedy’s presence and subsequent withdrawal have left little room for his campaign’s impact to significantly affect the election’s outcome. While early polls had indicated his support to be in the double digits, more recent polls showed his support stabilizing in the mid-single digits. Considering that third-party candidates often underperform their initial poll ratings in the general election, it remains unclear if Kennedy’s actual level of support would have matched these figures.

Division in Partisan Appeal

Recent months have seen a split in the American public’s opinion of Kennedy, with roughly equal numbers of people having favourable and unfavourable views of him. Polls conducted before Biden’s departure from the presidential race last month revealed a decline in Kennedy’s popularity since February, with the number of people holding neutral views sitting around 3 in 10. Republicans were significantly more likely to have a favorable view of Kennedy than Democrats or independents.

Base of Support and Family Legacy

Despite running as an independent, Kennedy’s biggest obstacle appeared to be earning the favor of independent voters. Approximately 4 in 10 independents claimed they did not know enough about Kennedy to form an opinion. Among the informed independents, the views were split equally between favourable and unfavourable.

Many initially supported Kennedy as an alternative to a dreaded rematch of Biden versus Trump from the 2020 election. But with Harris’ entry as the top Democratic candidate, Kennedy appeared to lose support, primarily among women and non-white voters who were previously considering him.

Kennedy’s initial campaign strategy heavily relied on the legacy of his family name, highlighting his connections to other celebrated Kennedys like his father or his uncle, former President John F. Kennedy. His approach may have gained initial traction among Democrats, but ultimately, the clear division among partisans and the relative indifference among independents appears to have sealed his fate in the 2024 elections.