Tropical Storm Rafael Nears Hurricane Strength, Threatens Caribbean and Cuba with Heavy Rains and Possible Flooding

San Juan, Puerto Rico

Tropical Storm Rafael has gained strength, moving dangerously close to hurricane status as it heads toward the Caribbean. As of Tuesday night, the storm boasts maximum sustained winds of 70 mph (110 kph) and is on a northwest path toward the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. The storm is currently located about 25 miles (45 kilometers) southeast of Little Cayman.

Current Status and Predictions

According to updates from the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Rafael is predicted to undergo “steady to rapid intensification” in the next 24 hours. The storm is expected to become a hurricane while traversing the Cayman Islands late Tuesday night before making landfall in western Cuba on Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds begin at 74 mph, which means Rafael is just below this threshold.

Advisories and Evacuations

In anticipation of the storm’s landfall, the U.S. State Department has issued an advisory for Cuba. They are offering departure flights to non-essential staff and American citizens in Cuba and are advising travelers to reconsider their plans due to the storm’s impact. Meanwhile, the Cuban Civil Defense has taken to social media, urging residents to prepare promptly for the approaching storm. They advised citizens to stay where they are once Rafael makes landfall.

Authorities have also ordered the evacuation of approximately 37,000 people from the eastern province of Guantanamo in light of bad weather conditions.

Warnings and Preparations

Currently, a hurricane warning is in effect for the Cayman Islands and several provinces in Cuba, including Pinar del Río, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth. Tropical storm warnings are in place for provinces like Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, and Ciego de Avila. Areas in Florida are also under tropical storm warning, specifically from the lower and middle Florida Keys up to west of the Channel 5 Bridge, and the Dry Tortugas. A tropical storm watch is in effect for provinces such as Camaguey and Las Tunas.

In the Cayman Islands, officials have taken preventive measures by closing schools and government offices as residents are urged to prepare for the storm’s impact. Reports indicate that grocery stores are experiencing long lines as people stock up on necessary supplies.

The Impact on Cuba

Rafael is particularly concerning for Cuba, which is still recovering from the effects of Hurricane Oscar, which struck two weeks ago in the eastern part of the island, claiming at least six lives. The country is facing additional challenges as it deals with ongoing power outages.

Potential Weather Effects

Forecasters predict that Rafael will bring heavy rain across the western Caribbean, raising concerns of flooding and mudslides in Cuba and the Cayman Islands. Rainfall is expected to extend into Florida and nearby southeastern areas in the middle to latter part of this week.

Additionally, storm surges are a major concern, particularly in Florida where levels could reach 1 to 3 feet in the Dry Tortugas and 1 to 2 feet in the Lower Florida Keys. There is also a possibility of tornadoes forming in these regions on Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Season

Rafael is officially the 17th named storm of the 2024 hurricane season. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has indicated that this season is likely to be above average, forecasting between 17 and 25 named storms, including as many as 13 hurricanes, with four projected to be major hurricanes. In a typical Atlantic hurricane season, there are about 14 named storms, with approximately seven reaching hurricane status.